Every critic and blogger has their predictions for the 10 movies that will be nominated in the Best Picture category. Everyone seems to agree on the same 8 or 9 with the 10th spot still open. Here is a list of the most likely nominated movies and my thoughts:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK-This movie keeps moving forward full steam ahead. It will definitely be nominated. I can no longer have THE KINGS SPEECH as my pick to win Best Picture. THE SOCIAL NETWORK has won too many critics awards and been on too many favorite lists to not win. They also have the money to pay for a huge Oscar campaign. So, I am giving in to the hype and predicting it to be the winner!
THE KINGS SPEECH-In the beginning it seemed like a shoe in to win, but now that it has been released the reviews have slowed down its momentum. Colin Firth is a favorite to win Best Actor, but the movie itself does not tell a story as well as THE SOCIAL NETWORK.
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT-Has had excellent reviews and is a great movie, but some see flaws in the story. More specifically the way Mark Ruffalos character is treated and ultimately shunned by the family. Some also say that the Academy is still apprehensive about stories with gay characters, so some members may not even see it.
BLACK SWAN-Has some things going against it. It may be too much of a horror film to be considered Best Picture. It certainly does not tell a story as well as THE SOCIAL NETWORK. Natalie Portman will most likely win Best Actress and deservedly so. BLACK SWAN does not have the legs to win Best Picture, but it does for a nomination.
TOY STORY 3-Great movie, very well done and will win Best Animated Film. It would be a slap in the face to all of the other filmmakers if a cartoon won Best Picture.
THE FIGHTER–Christian Bale will come out of this with a Best Supporting Actor nomination and most likely the win. David O’Russell possibly a nomination for directing. The problem is that many say the film is overrated. The movie has been criticized for the ending. (*SPOILER ALERT*) Many do not feel as though Mark Wahlberg’s character would decide to go back to that awful family with no explanation. It also seems odd that the mother never acknowledges or confronts Bale’s drug addiction.
INCEPTION-It was released early in the year and still maintaining momentum going into the awards season. After watching some of INCEPTION for a second time I realized what a great picture this really is. It will receive many nominations like art direction, cinematography, visual effects and directing. I still don’t think that it can win Best Picture over THE SOCIAL NETWORK.
127 HOURS–This movie has lost a lot of steam since its release. Partly because people including Academy voters are afraid to see it due it’s so called “graphic nature”. There is too much competition out there for it to win or for that matter be nominated in the Best Picture category.
THE TOWN-Another great movie that continues it’s momentum. It has Golden Globe, SAG and BFCA nominations. It would be great to see Ben Affleck and Jeremy Renner get some awards from THE TOWN. Not strong enough for a Best Picture win.
TRUE GRIT-Since it’s release it has been gaining strength. It is making huge amounts of money and getting great reviews. The big question is will Hailee Steinfeld get a Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress nomination. She would have a much better chance of winning in the supporting role. She is in almost every frame of the film so it’s hard to call her supporting. Some are predicting TRUE GRIT as a Best Picture winner, but I do not.
WINTER’S BONE-It is a very quiet and some what slow movie. It’s buzz has quieted due to the fact that it hasn’t received many nominations or awards so far. Jennifer Lawrence deserves a nomination for the role, but in no way can beat Natalie Portman. It is possible that WINTER’S BONE will not even make it in the 10 nominations list.