Around this time every year we try to predict the films that have the best Oscar chances. Most od these movies will not be seen until November and December, but bloggers and critics try to choose the films with the most potential. Based on Director, Actors, story line and overall internet buzz. There seems to be a formula that makes an “Oscar” movie. So, using that formula we can “guess” what might be an awards contender.

Many are predicting LINCOLN, based on this formula:

Director:  We know Spielberg can make Oscar movies. WAR HORSE was a little over the top with the Oscar bait and LINCOLN is sure to be the same. It will really help if Spielberg gets a Best Director nomination.

Cast: Daniel Day-Lewis will make or break LINCOLN. The picture of him as Abraham Lincoln is uncanny, but that doesn’t matter as much as his acting. If he can pull it off he will be in the Best Actor Category. Sally Fields as Mary Todd Lincoln, remember we like her, we really liker her!  Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Tommy Lee Jones add to the possible acting nominations.

Story: It’s historical! Academy voters love historical! It is based on a real story. Voters love a real story. I can guarantee that someone cries. Voters love actors that cry!

Critics: Good reviews by critics are extremely important. These days critics and bloggers can affect how the Academy votes. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE would be an exception.

Box Office: Big box office is not always necessary (HURT LOCKER), but is certainly helps.

LINCOLN as well as any award contender has a long way to go to win Best Picture. It has to have all of the above and win some Golden Globes, SAG’s, PGA’s, and Directors Guild awards. Also against it is “too early syndrome”. It is only June and 2 years ago at this time everyone was predicting the SOCIAL NETWORK. It lost to THE KINGS SPEECH. Last year in June we were talking about WAR HORSE and it lost to THE ARTIST.

While on paper LINCOLN looks to be a Best Picture winner, it has a long uphill battle. The odds of a nomination are pretty high.


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