HOW TO PREDICT THE ACADEMY AWARD WINNERS

Statistician Nate Silver predicted this years presidential race by turning polls and demographics into mathematical equations. Much like Billy Beane did for baseball MONEYBALL.  You can’t narrow it down so specifically for the Academy Awards. Mostly due to the fact that the general public does not vote for Oscars.  There is still some science to predicting winners. You can look at trends and popularity on social media as well as statistics from previous years. Last year Nate Silver himself looked into predicting the Oscars and he came up with these 4 rules:

1. By far the best predictors are the winners of other major awards, like the Golden Globes. That isn’t rocket science, I know. But there is some utility in knowing which awards have the best track records in which categories. In the best picture category, for instance, awards given out by ‘outsiders’ like critics tend to be far less reliable predictors than those given out by professionals like directors and producers.

2. A nomination for best picture is a boon in the other categories. If one nominee for best actress appears in an Oscar-nominated film and another does not, the one in the nominated film is more likely to win. Unfortunately, now that 10 rather than five movies are nominated for Best Picture, this state of affairs is less likely to happen.

3. The Academy — which can take itself very seriously — is relatively unfriendly toward comedies. If two candidates otherwise seem tied, lean toward the more dramatic film. The exception is in the supporting actor and actress categories, where the Academy likes to have a bit more fun and playing comedic or otherwise quirky and offbeat roles may actually be an advantage.

4. Hollywood has some tendency to “spread the wealth” — generally, it hurts a nominee’s chances if she’s won in her category before. The converse is also somewhat true — if someone has been nominated a lot but has not won, they may build up some sympathy points. This is not absolute, however — otherwise, Meryl Streep would not have been shut out in her last 11 best actress nominations.

 

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