I am guessing that there will be 8 nominations this year for Best Picture. Unless DJANGO UNCHAINED is huge or FLIGHT has enough momentum there will only be 8, maybe 7. Here is my list of my predictions for Best Picture nominees in order of their chances of winning:
1. ARGO– Maintains the lead to not only get the nomination but, also the win. It has all of the ingredients for a Best Picture. The Academy loves a good “safe” movie based on a true story. If ARGO wins there won’t be much disagreement because unlike the other Best Picture contenders, nobody has anything bad to say about ARGO. Many were disappointed in THE KINGS SPEECH and THE ARTIST winning Best Picture, but people generally liked those films and didn’t have much of an argument against them winning. Same goes for ARGO.
2. LINCOLN– Second place is a toss-up between LINCOLN and LES MISERABLES. LINCOLN has been released and the reviews have been mostly positive, but there might be just enough bad echos to bump it further down the list of winning BP. It is certainly a lock for nomination.
3.LES MISERABLES– Still waiting for this movie to be seen. It is getting really late in the game and needs to start getting some momentum before it falls off the map. But based on the trailer I think it is a safe bet. All of the singing was done live during filming and not recorded like other musicals. Rumor has it that there are no spoken words and the entire film is done in song. Could be great or a disaster.
4.SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK- Another lock for a nomination. Even though it is being promoted as a romantic comedy, it is much more than that. Jeff Wells and Hollywood-elsewhere.com has been pushing this film to win everything and even hosted his own screening to get people’s attention. It certainly has its fans.
5. ZERO DARK THIRTY– Nobody has seen this one yet. It will have a short run in NY and LA in December, but the rest of us will have to wait until January. It is hard to say where this falls in the list, but most Oscar predictors have it somewhere.
6.THE MASTER- It was released a little early in the season and at the it was all there was to talk about regarding Oscars. It has quickly dropped down the list. While it is a great piece of film making it didn’t connect with audiences. It is good for a nomination, but a movie has to have a plot to win.
8.BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD– Received a lot of attention when it was released in the Summer, but it has faded. It has the disadvantage of not qualifying for some of the precursor awards. The Writers Guild only allows films that use writers that are members of the union. This movie was done so far away from the Hollywood “in” crowd that it may have missed the boat.