It is beginning to look like the Best Picture race is down to ARGO or LINCOLN. ARGO’s biggest obstacle is Ben Affleck not getting a Best Director nomination. But, since the Academy now chooses more than 5 Best Picture nominees and there are only 5 Best Director nominees, there are always a few Directors left out. In a “normal” year you could narrow down your prediction for Best Picture, by eliminating the nominees with that did not get a Director nom. So you would narrow down the choices to AMOUR, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, LINCOLN, LIFE OF PI or SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK. (DRIVING MISS DAISY was the last time a BP won without a Director nomination.)
This year is very different. Mostly due to all the date changes. In precious years, Oscar voters would see what the DGA, WGA and PGA did before choosing their nominations. And I would predict the Oscars from those winners. This year the Oscar ballots were due before any of the guild nominations were announce. I am convinced Katheryn Bigelow and Ben Aflleck would have been nominated for Director if this was any other year. We are now getting to see the “real” Academy of voters, not the old group that was voting for the nominations of others. This year they were on their own. And now ARGO looks to be the one to beat. It has one every major award since Oscar noms. were announced. Two things could happen. The Oscars may still think that LINCOLN is their favorite movie of the year, regardless of the ARGO onslaught In that case Spielberg wins Best Director and Picture. Or, ARGO is their favorite movie, but they appreciated Spielberg’s work enough to give him the Best Director Award. My guess is the latter. Tomorrow nights DGA awards will either seal the deal for ARGO or keep LINCOLN in the race.
Will all of this said, anything can happen. People love SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK.(not me) Maybe enough to win it all.
My prediction…Affleck wins DGA and Best Picture. Spielberg wins Oscar for Director. They will have then honored both films.