In 2010 when I started this blog I predicted 17 correct out of the 24 nominees for 71% correct.
Last year I predicted 18 out of the 24 nominees for 75%. I was hoping to do better this year, but it was not to be. I picked 17 out of 24 again for 71%.
You can’t complain about ARGO winning Best Picture. The least offensive movie will always win. The Best Picture is a movie that you can sit anyone down in front of and they will like it. The other nominees were too just divisive this year . The Oscar talk for Argo began during Telluride and then faded a bit while we waited for LINCOLN, LES MISERABLES and ZERO DARK THIRTY. Once the guilds began to award ARGO, it came back fast. Then all of a sudden if you liked ZERO DARK THIRTY it meant that you were pro-torture. LES MIZ was really only for fans of the Broadway version. DJANGO UNCHAINED and the “n” word. AMOUR reminded people of their own mortality and that isn’t really a fun time at the movies. LINCOLN was thought to be too much like homework and too talky. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK was a romantic comedy and they never win. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD a little movie worth some recognition, but up against better and bigger films. LIFE OF PI didn’t have any acting nominations and it got a bit too religious at the end for some. Some complained that it had too much CGI to compete like a “real” movie. ARGO had some controversy too by not recognizing Canada’s efforts in the rescue of Americans. Ben Affleck thanked Canada at the end of the movie and thanked Canada again and again as he campaigned. In the last few weeks there was some discussion about how much of ARGO was made up for dramatic reasons and therefore was not worthy of Best Picture. In the end it was too late for ARGO not to win.
That is how you predict Best Picture. Eliminate the controversial nominees and the least offensive wins.