It happens every year. A movie makes a big splash at Toronto or Telluride and everyone claims it the Best Picture winner. Last year at this time THE MASTER and ARGO were most peoples picks. ARGO did go on to win Best Picture, so maybe they are on to something.
This year is is 12 YEARS A SLAVE.
Christopher Rosen at Huffington Post said,
I’m not even sure we should have this chat — or any other this Oscar season — since the Best Picture winner at the 86th annual Academy Awards is “12 Years A Slave.”