Alfonso Cuaron won the Directors Guild Award for GRAVITY on Saturday night (2am EST Sunday morning). History tells us that the PGA and DGA are the best predictors for the Best Picture Oscar winner. In 65 years only 7 times has the DGA winner not won the Oscar. The PGA awarded 12 YEARS A SLAVE and GRAVITY with a first ever tie. With GRAVITY technically winning both of the best predictors for the Oscars, you should bet on GRAVITY for the win.
But, in such a competitive year, anything can happen. If there was ever a year when Director and Picture would split it would be this year. GRAVITY was a huge technical achievement and will change the way movies are made, but so was AVATAR and we know what happened there. Don’t forget GRAVITY is a 3D science fiction movie, mostly using CGI and only 2 characters. Not usually a type of film that the Academy goes for. 12 YEARS A SLAVE is more of an “Oscar” movie and seems to have the support to win Best Picture.
The BAFTA awards on February 16th may give us a few more clues as many of the Oscar voters are British and vote in both awards. Some say it’s still too close to call, others who go by stats and past years say GRAVITY will win Best Picture. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.