Their are a ton of Oscar websites and blogs that spend many months predicting which movies will make the nomination list for Best Picture. These lists are based on critics reviews, word of mouth and what they think the Academy will like. As you can see there is a consensus building for La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Fences. The rest is a little muddy. 

Here is what some of the top Oscar sites on the Internet are predicting will nominated for best picture: 

Gold Derby

Gurus o’ Gold

Awards Circuit