Predicting the Best Picture Nominees

There are several ways to predict the films that will be nominated for Best Picture. You can check out the many websites that post what the “experts” are predicting .  These people follow the race all year long. They talk to publicists and Academy members to get a feel for what films have the “buzz”.  One of those sites is Gold Derby. Here are what the 24 “experts” at Gold Derby are currently predicting for a Best Picture nomination including the odds. 


Keep in mind that there can be between 5 and 10 nominees based on the number of votes a film gets. 

Another way to predict the Oscars is to look at stats and at the number of nominations or wins that a film has so far. Awards Daily built a chart comparing the nominations for the precursor awards and the Oscar nominations from previous years. 



You can see that since 2012 getting a Critics Choice nomination often leads to a BP nomination.

Here is how it looks so far this year.


Based on the experts predictions and stats from previous years, your Best Picture nominees list could look something like this:

La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Fences
Arrival 
Hell or High Water 
Hacksaw Ridge
Silence
Hidden Figures

Alternatives:
Jackie
Sully
Lion
Captain Fantastic 

A lot will happen over the next few weeks before nominations and there are bound to be a few surprises. 

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