Last year at this time La La Land was the frontrunner for Best Picture. Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea were close behind, but it was still all about La La Land. As soon as a film is labeled a front runner the take down begins. As the season went on people noticed that La La Land had some issues. A white guy inventing jazz, Ryan Gosling couldn’t sing, Emma Stone’s character had it way too easy before becoming a successful actress and that ending.
This year in October we have no real frontrunner. It’s very unusual to not have a movie that most of, if not all of the Oscar bloggers are predicting to win Best Picture. The closest we have is Dunkirk. It appears to have the most buzz surrounding it right now. We also have Call Me by Your Name (my personal favorite) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, The Florida Project and Darkest Hour. A few of these are bound to get a nomination, but we are still waiting to see a few other like The Post and Phantom Thread.
Will the 4 Gotham Awards nominations for Get Out push it into the Oscar race? Can Wonder Woman get a nomination? Is Battle of the Sexes out of the race? What about the Big Sick? Basically, we don’t know anything at this point. We can only guess what films the Academy might go for. We will know a little more once some of the critics awards are announced beginning at the end of November. It will really start to come together when the major guilds like the PGA, DGA, SAG and ACE announce their nominations. A consensus will build and everything will come into focus.
Here is my first pass at which films could get a Best Picture nomination:
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
The Florida Project
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Battle of the Sexes
The Big Sick