The Producers Guild of America chose The Shape of Water as their Best Picture last night. The PGA winner usually puts a film at frontrunner status for the Oscar for Best Picture. This year, not so much. The Shape of Water failed to get a SAG nomination. SAG membership is all actors as well as the majority of the Oscar voters. If the actors aren’t behind The Shape of Water, it’s hard to imagine it winning Best Picture. No film has won Best Picture without a SAG nomination since Braveheart in 1995.
This may be the year that the SAG stat gets broken, if indeed The Shape of Water is the frontrunner. We know that Guillermo Del Toro will most likely win the DGA and the Oscar for Best Director. What we don’t know is if it will be a split year when Director and Picture go to separate films. This year is ripe for a split. Del Toro wins Director and Get Out or Lady Bird win Best Picture. Three Billboards could also sneak in there, but it looks to be too divisive to win.