2018 Oscar Nominations – Full List

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins (The Shape Of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Best Animated Feature Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Best Original Song
“Mighty River” (Mudbound)
“Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name)
“Remember Me” (Coco)
“Stand Up for Something” (Marshall)
“This is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough To Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men In Aleppo
Strong Island

Best Documentary Short
Edith + Eddie
Heaven Is A Traffic Jam On The 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body And Soul
The Square

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape Of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape Of Water)

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria And Abdul
Wonder

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War For The Planet Of The Apes

Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape Of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Live Action Short Film
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All Of Us

Best Animated Short Film
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape Of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape Of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Costume Design
Beauty And The Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape Of Water
Victoria And Abdul

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape Of Water

Best Production Design
Beauty And The Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape Of Water

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2017 Movie Mashup

Sam Barnett put a nice montage together of all of the 300 films released in 2017. Way too much superhero, loud nonsense, but that was 2017.

Can La La Land Really Win Best Picture?

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La La Land was called the Best Picture frontrunner way back in August when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival. It then maintained its frontrunner status at both the Telluride and Toronto film festivals. Now that the guilds have announced their nominations, is La La Land really a lock to win Best Picture?

-It did not get the SAG nomination. 160,000 actors vote in SAG with a majority of them also voting in the Oscars. If they thought that it was strong enough it would have received the SAG nomination. Regardless of being a typical ensemble or not. Last year when we thought the Revenant was going to win Best Picture, it too was missing a SAG nomination. Spotlight had the SAG and won. The last time a movie won Best Picture WITHOUT a SAG Ensemble nomination was Braveheart in 1996. That is a big stat to overcome. 

-It’s been the clear leader for 6 months already, and early frontrunners have a hard time making it all of the way. It’s a long Oscar season and people are getting tired of hearing about La La Land and questioning if it is really “that good”.

-The Oscars are no longer afraid to split Best Picture and Best Director. The more visual film gets Director (Gravity, The Revenant) and the thematic film gets Best Picture (12 Years a Slave, Spotlight). I can easily see Best Director going to Damien Chazelle and Picture going to Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea.

-Best Picture often has a good backstory that everyone can root for. (e.g. the movie was almost never made or the director worked his whole life and almost died etc) Director Damien Chazelle has not much adversity in his life. He went to Harvard and his first film Whiplash was a huge success. Voters like a more down and out backstory.

-People aren’t afraid to hate La La Land. It is socially acceptable to not be a fan. In the preferential ballot that the Oscars use, a film has to be overwhelmingly loved to win. The least divisive film that anyone can sit down, watch and love or at least like wins. That may not be La La Land.

-Musicals rarely win Best Picture. When they do, the singing must be spectacular. Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling are not the strongest singers ever seen on film.

Predicting La La Land for Best Picture is still a pretty safe bet right now. It still needs to win the PGA and DGA to be in the game. Don’t discount Moonlight just yet.

Predicting the Best Picture Nominees

There are several ways to predict the films that will be nominated for Best Picture. You can check out the many websites that post what the “experts” are predicting .  These people follow the race all year long. They talk to publicists and Academy members to get a feel for what films have the “buzz”.  One of those sites is Gold Derby. Here are what the 24 “experts” at Gold Derby are currently predicting for a Best Picture nomination including the odds. 


Keep in mind that there can be between 5 and 10 nominees based on the number of votes a film gets. 

Another way to predict the Oscars is to look at stats and at the number of nominations or wins that a film has so far. Awards Daily built a chart comparing the nominations for the precursor awards and the Oscar nominations from previous years. 



You can see that since 2012 getting a Critics Choice nomination often leads to a BP nomination.

Here is how it looks so far this year.


Based on the experts predictions and stats from previous years, your Best Picture nominees list could look something like this:

La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Fences
Arrival 
Hell or High Water 
Hacksaw Ridge
Silence
Hidden Figures

Alternatives:
Jackie
Sully
Lion
Captain Fantastic 

A lot will happen over the next few weeks before nominations and there are bound to be a few surprises. 

New Trailer for Best Picture Front Runner La La Land

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Damien Chazelle’s La La Land centers on two dreamers living in Los Angeles: Mia (Emma Stone), an aspiring actress who can’t land a gig and Sebastian (Ryan Gosling), a pianist who wants to open his own jazz club. The pair eventually falls for each other, but their dreams are tested when their relationship becomes an obstacle to their careers rather than a support system.

Lionsgate released the third trailer today concentrating less on the music and more on the plot. Musicals aren’t generally big at the box office, especially musicals with original music. Box office draw plays a very small part when choosing a Best Picture winner.  What makes La La Land front runner is that most everyone that has seen it has loved it or at least liked it. The Academy loves movies about Hollywood especially those that celebrate old Hollywood as La La Land does.

Another way to find a Best Picture winner is to build it category by category. Expect nominations for Best Actress Emma Stone, Best Actor Ryan Gosling, Best Director Damien Chazelle, Best Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Song. That my friends is what makes a Best Picture.

La La Land opens December 9th.

Telluride Has a History of Choosing Best Picture Winners


The Telluride Film Festival has a track record of choosing films that go on to get a Best Picture nomination. For the past six years a movie from Telluride went on to win Best Picture. They have had 31 BP nominations over their 42 year history. 
1974: The Conversation
1989: My Left Foot
1992: The Crying Game
1993: The Piano
1996: Secrets and Lies
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2003: Lost in Translation
2004: Finding Neverland
2005: Brokeback Mountain, Capote
2006: Babel
2007: Juno, There Will Be Blood
2008: Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: An Education, Up in the Air
2010: The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, Black Swan
2011: The Artist, The Descendants
2012: Argo, Amour
2013: 12 Years a Slave,Gravity, Nebraska
2014: Birdman,The Imitation Game
2015: Spotlight, Room

This is part of the reason for so many people predicting Spotlight to win last year over The Revanant. As we know trends don’t last forever, but based on the Telluride line-up announced today, there is a pretty good chance that the Best Picture winner is on this list.

2016 Telluride line-up:

  • ARRIVAL (d. Denis Villeneuve, U.S., 2016)
  • THE B-SIDE: ELSA DORFMAN’S PORTRAIT PHOTOGRAPHY (d. Errol Morris, U.S., 2016)
  • BLEED FOR THIS (d. Ben Younger, U.S., 2016)
  • CALIFORNIA TYPEWRITER (d. Doug Nichol, U.S., 2016)
  • CHASING TRANE (d. John Scheinfeld, U.S., 2016)
  • THE END OF EDEN (d. Angus Macqueen, U.K., 2016)
  • FINDING OSCAR (d. Ryan Suffern, U.S., 2016)
  • FIRE AT SEA (d. Gianfranco Rosi, Italy/France, 2016)
  • FRANTZ (d. François Ozon, France, 2016)
  • GENTLEMAN RISSIENT (d. Benoît Jacquot, Pascal Mérigeau, Guy Seligmann, France, 2016)
  • GRADUATION (d. Cristian Mungiu, Romania/France/Belgium, 2016)
  • INTO THE INFERNO (d. Werner Herzog, U.K./Austria, 2016)
  • THE IVORY GAME (d. Kief Davidson, Richard Ladkani, Austria/U.S., 2016)
  • LA LA LAND (d. Damien Chazelle, U.S., 2016)
  • LOST IN PARIS (d. Fiona Gordon, Dominique Abel, France/Belgium, 2016)
  • MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (d. Kenneth Lonergan, U.S., 2016)
  • MAUDIE (d. Aisling Walsh, Canada/Ireland, 2016)
  • MEN: A LOVE STORY (d. Mimi Chakarova, U.S., 2016)
  • MOONLIGHT (d. Barry Jenkins, U.S., 2016)
  • MY JOURNEY THROUGH FRENCH CINEMA (d. Bertrand Tavernier, France, 2016)
  • NERUDA (d. Pablo Larraín, Chile/Argentina/France/Spain, 2016)
  • NORMAN: THE MODERATE RISE AND TRAGIC FALL OF A NEW YORK FIXER (d. Joseph Cedar, U.S./Israel, 2016)
  • SULLY (d. Clint Eastwood, U.S., 2016)
  • THINGS TO COME (d. Mia Hansen-Løve, France/Germany, 2016)
  • THROUGH THE WALL (d. Rama Burshtein, U.S./Israel, 2016)
  • TONI ERDMANN (d. Maren Ade, Germany/Austria, 2016)
  • UNA (d. Benedict Andrews, U.K./U.S./Canada, 2016)
  • WAKEFIELD (d. Robin Swicord, U.S., 2016)

The festival runs September 2nd-September 5th.

New Joy Trailer

One of the few movies left to be seen is David O’ Russell’s JOY. Jennifer Lawrence plays Joy Mangano, the inventor of the Miracle Mop, who went on to great success after selling her first invention on QVC.

JOY is inline to be a major Oscar contender this year for best picture, best actress, director and screenplay.