Do The Golden Globes Change the Oscar Race?

The 75th Golden Globes ceremony is tonight and offers a bit of a preview of what can win at the Academy Awards. One thing to note is that we are 2 days into voting for Oscar nominations. Anyone who has already voted will obviously not be affected by tonight’s outcome, but the rest could be swayed. The Globes have separate awards for comedy and drama, doubling its chances of choosing the Best Picture Oscar winner.

Last year Moonlight was awarded Best Drama and went on to win the Oscar. Casey Affleck won the Globe for Manchester by the Sea and Emma Stone did won the Actress Globe for La La Land. They both went on to win the Oscar.

Keep in mind that Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who vote on the Globes, is a group of 90 people while the academy is made up of 7,000 plus voters. The HFPA votes using the popular vote while the Oscars use a preferential ballot for Best Picture. Both could produce separate outcomes. If anything it will tell us which films and performances have support. Especially in a year when we don’t have a clear frontrunner.

The acceptance speeches tonight, could make or break an actors Oscar chances. The Academy votes for who they like, plain and simple. When Sally Fields said “you like me, you really like me” during her acceptance speech for her Oscar win, she wasn’t being conceited. She was seriously surprised that “they” liked her. That’s what it takes to win. Give a good down to earth, honest and emotional acceptance speech at the Globes and the Academy will like you, really like you.

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2017 Movie Mashup

Sam Barnett put a nice montage together of all of the 300 films released in 2017. Way too much superhero, loud nonsense, but that was 2017.

Florida Film Critics Circle Awards Winners

The Florida Film Critics Circle announced the winner of their awards this week.

Dunkirk won Best Picture, but the most awards went to Blade Runner 2049 with four. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri won Best Ensemble and Sam Rockwell won Best Supporting Actor. The Best Actress went to Margot Robbie for her performance as former figure skater Tonya Harding in the black comedy I, Tonya. Allison Janey wonf for Best Supporting Actress also for I, Tonya. Janey. Winning Best Actor was, once again, Timothee Chalamet continued his run to Oscar night for Best Actor in Call my by Your Name.

Complete list of winners:

BEST PICTURE
Dunkirk (WINNER)
Lady Bird (Runner-Up)

BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk (WINNER)
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird (Runner-Up)

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (WINNER)
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (Runner-Up)

BEST ACTRESS
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (WINNER)
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Runner-Up)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WINNER)
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (Runner-Up)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya (WINNER)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (Runner-Up)

BEST ENSEMBLE
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WINNER)
Dunkirk (Runner-Up)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get Out (WINNER)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Runner-Up)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name (WINNER)
The Disaster Artist (Runner-Up)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049 (WINNER)
Dunkirk (Runner-Up)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049 (WINNER)
War for the Planet of the Apes (Runner-Up)

BEST ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blade Runner 2049 (WINNER)
Dunkirk (Runner-Up)

BEST SCORE
Blade Runner 2049 (WINNER)
Dunkirk (Runner-Up)

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Jane (WINNER)
Ex Libris: New York Public Library (Runner-Up)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
BPM (WINNER)
The Square (Runner-Up)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Coco (WINNER)
Loving Vincent (Runner-Up)

BEST FIRST FILM
Get Out (WINNER)
God’s Own Country (Runner-Up)

PAULINE KAEL BREAKOUT AWARD
Timothée Chalamet (WINNER)
Jordan Peele (Runner-Up)

GOLDEN ORANGE
The cast and crew of The Florida Project

What the SAG Nominations Tell Us

The Screen Actors Guild nominations traditionally clear things up. They normally show us how the Oscar race is shaping up. Not so much this year. If anything, it made everything less clear.

The critics have announced their favorites of the year and they were all over the place. The critics groups liked Get Out, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird and The Post. The difference is that the Oscar voters are people working in the industry and they make their favorites known by their guild awards. The largest voting branch in the Oscars are actors, making the SAG awards a strong Oscar predictor.

After the Golden Globe nominations, it looked like The Shape of Water was an Oscar front runner after receiving the most nominations. And then today it was shut out of the Best Ensemble nomination at SAG. Why is the SAG Ensemble so important? The Best Picture winner hasn’t won without a SAG Ensemble nomination since Braveheart in 1995.

A critics favorite, The Post was also shut out of the ensemble nominations. Apparently, the SAG voters did not receive a screener for The Post in time for voting. With an ensemble consisting of Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, this is a huge miss. If you aren’t competing in the SAG race, it makes it much harder to compete in the Oscar race.

This is why when a studio really wants to push their film for an Oscar campaign, they need to get them shown at the Fall Film festivals, start good word of mouth, gain steam and be seen by as many guild members as possible.

Late comers like The Post, Phantom Thread and All the Money in World should not be written off for the Oscars, but they need to be seen by as many people as possible.

Best Documentary Feature Shortlist

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has narrowed the list for the Documentary Feature Oscar to 15. They will narrow it down to 5 nominees when the Oscar nominations are announced on January 23rd.

Full list of the 15 contenders for Best Documentary Feature:

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Ex Libris – The New York Public Library
Faces Places
Human Flow
Icarus
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Jane
LA 92
Last Men in Aleppo
Long Strange Trip
One of Us
Strong Island
Unrest

First Oscars Promo of The Year

A new promo for the 2018 Academy Awards shows the awkward moment from last year’s show when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway mistakenly announced La La Land as the best picture winner.

The trailer also features a montage of 2017’s biggest films, including Wonder Woman, Beauty and the Beast, Girls Trip, It, Baby Driver, Get Out, Lady Bird, and The Post.

The 90th Academy Awards will begin 30 minutes earlier than previous years. It will now begin at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. This should prevent the show from going past Midnight on the east coast. The 90-minute Oscars pre-show, will begin at 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT.