The Oscar nominations for the 89th Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, January 24th at 5:18am PST.
I used the predictions of other Oscar bloggers and Oscarologists, as well as my own opinion to come up with my list. Here goes nothing.

Best Picture
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Lion
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water

Best Director
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)
Garth Davis (Lion)

Best Actor
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)

Best Actress
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Lion
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Fences

Best Original Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
Jackie
The Lobster

Best Animated Feature
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Finding Dory

Best Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
The Eagle Huntress
13th
Life, Animated
Weiner

Best Foreign Language Film
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Paradise

Best Cinematography
La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
Silence
Lion

Best Costume Design
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Captain Fantastic
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Silence

Best Film Editing
La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
O.J.: Made in America
Manchester by the Sea

Makeup and Hair Styling
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
Star Trek Beyond

Best Original Score
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Jackie
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Song
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
“Audition” (La La Land)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Trolls)

Best Production Design
La La Land
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Jackie

Best Sound Editing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

Best Sound Mixing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Silence

Best Visual Effects
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Live Action Short
Nocturne in Black
Timecode
Bon Voyage
The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy
Graffiti

Best Animated Short
Inner Workings
Piper
Pearl
Once Upon a Line
The Head Vanishes

Best Documentary Short
The White Helmets
Joe’s Violin
Extremis
Brillo Box (3¢ Off)
Watani: My Homeland

lala-land-1

La La Land was called the Best Picture frontrunner way back in August when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival. It then maintained its frontrunner status at both the Telluride and Toronto film festivals. Now that the guilds have announced their nominations, is La La Land really a lock to win Best Picture?

-It did not get the SAG nomination. 160,000 actors vote in SAG with a majority of them also voting in the Oscars. If they thought that it was strong enough it would have received the SAG nomination. Regardless of being a typical ensemble or not. Last year when we thought the Revenant was going to win Best Picture, it too was missing a SAG nomination. Spotlight had the SAG and won. The last time a movie won Best Picture WITHOUT a SAG Ensemble nomination was Braveheart in 1996. That is a big stat to overcome. 

-It’s been the clear leader for 6 months already, and early frontrunners have a hard time making it all of the way. It’s a long Oscar season and people are getting tired of hearing about La La Land and questioning if it is really “that good”.

-The Oscars are no longer afraid to split Best Picture and Best Director. The more visual film gets Director (Gravity, The Revenant) and the thematic film gets Best Picture (12 Years a Slave, Spotlight). I can easily see Best Director going to Damien Chazelle and Picture going to Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea.

-Best Picture often has a good backstory that everyone can root for. (e.g. the movie was almost never made or the director worked his whole life and almost died etc) Director Damien Chazelle has not much adversity in his life. He went to Harvard and his first film Whiplash was a huge success. Voters like a more down and out backstory.

-People aren’t afraid to hate La La Land. It is socially acceptable to not be a fan. In the preferential ballot that the Oscars use, a film has to be overwhelmingly loved to win. The least divisive film that anyone can sit down, watch and love or at least like wins. That may not be La La Land.

-Musicals rarely win Best Picture. When they do, the singing must be spectacular. Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling are not the strongest singers ever seen on film.

Predicting La La Land for Best Picture is still a pretty safe bet right now. It still needs to win the PGA and DGA to be in the game. Don’t discount Moonlight just yet.


The Directors Guilds Association announced their nominations today. The DGA has always been an excellent predictor of how Oscar nominations for Best Director will go. The DGA also predicts what will be named Best Picture. It is very difficult to win Best Picture without a DGA nomination.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN FEATURE FILM
DAMIEN CHAZELLE- La La Land
GARTH DAVIS – Lion
BARRY JENKINS – Moonlight
KENNETH LONERGAN – Manchester by the Sea
DENIS VILLENEUVE – Arrival

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF A FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM
GARTH DAVIS – Lion
KELLY FREMON CRAIG – The Edge of Seventeen
TIM MILLER – Deadpool
NATE PARKER – The Birth of a Nation
DAN TRACHTENBERG – 10 Cloverfield Lane

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN A DOCUMENTARY
OTTO BELL – The Eagle Huntress
EZRA EDELMAN – O.J.: Made in America
JOSH KRIEGMAN & ELYSE STEINBERG – Weiner
RAOUL PECK – I Am Not Your Negro
ROGER ROSS WILLIAMS – Life, Animated

These nominations tell us that La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea remain the top 3 locks for an Oscar nomination. We may be underestimating Lion which got a PGA and now a DGA nod. Arrival is in the game with nominations for an ACE Eddie, WGA, PGA and now DGA. Arrival in not going to win Best Picture, but for being such a divisive film, it’s holding its own pretty well. 

ace-eddie-awards-orange-600x275

ACE is the American Cinema Editors. They were founded in 1950 and are an honorary society of film editors that are voted in based on the qualities of professional achievements, their education of others, and their dedication to editing. 

The ACE Eddie awards have become great at predicting Best Picture nominees. Normally at least 4 out of the 5 ACE nominations for Dramatic Feature Film go on to get a nomination. And they have an even higher chance of being nominated for a Producers Guild Award. It’s good to see The Lobster get it in. One of the strangest and most underrated films of the year.

The Best Edited Comedy Film has some surprises with Deadpool, Hail Ceaser! and The Jungle Book.

The winners will be announced January 27th.

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):
Arrival
Joe Walker, ACE

Hacksaw Ridge
John Gilbert, ACE

Hell or High Water
Jake Roberts

Manchester by the Sea
Jennifer Lame

Moonlight
Nat Sanders, Joi McMillon

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY):
Deadpool
Julian Clarke, ACE

Hail, Caesar!
Roderick Jaynes

The Jungle Book
Mark Livolsi, ACE

La La Land
Tom Cross, ACE

The Lobster
Yorgos Mavropsaridis

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Christopher Murrie, ACE

Moana
Jeff Draheim, ACE

Zootopia
Fabienne Rawley & Jeremy Milton

BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE):
13th
Spencer Averick

Amanda Knox
Matthew Hamachek

The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years
Paul Crowder

O.J.: Made in America
Bret Granato, Maya Mumma & Ben Sozanski

Weiner
Eli B. Despres

Television Nominations

BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (TELEVISION):
The Choice 2016
Steve Audette, ACE

Everything is Copy
Bob Eisenhart, ACE

We Will Rise: Michelle Obama’s Mission to Educate Girls Around the World
Oliver Lief

BEST EDITED HALF-HOUR SERIES:
Silicon Valley: “The Uptick”
Brian Merken, ACE

Veep: “Morning After”
Steven Rasch, ACE

Veep: “Mother”
Shawn Paper

BEST EDITED ONE-HOUR SERIES – COMMERCIAL:
Better Call Saul: “Fifi”
Skip Macdonald, ACE

Better Call Saul: “Klick”
Skip Macdonald, ACE & Curtis Thurber

Better Call Saul: “Nailed”
Kelley Dixon, ACE & Chris McCaleb

Mr. Robot: “eps2.4m4ster-s1ave.aes”
Philip Harrison

This is Us: “Pilot”
David L. Bertman, ACE

BEST EDITED ONE-HOUR SERIES – NON-COMMERCIAL:
The Crown: “Assassins”
Yan Miles, ACE

Game of Thrones: “Battle of the Bastards”
Tim Porter, ACE

Stranger Things: “Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers”
Dean Zimmerman

Stranger Things: “Chapter Seven: The Bathtub”
Kevin D. Ross

Westworld: “The Original”
Stephen Semel, ACE & Marc Jozefowicz
BEST EDITED MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE (NON-THEATRICAL):
All the Way
Carol Littleton, ACE

The Night Of: “The Beach”
Jay Cassidy, ACE

The People V. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia”
Adam Penn, Stewart Schill, ACE & C. Chi-yoon Chung
BEST EDITED NON-SCRIPTED SERIES:
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown: “Manila”
Hunter Gross, ACE

Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown: Senegal
Mustafa Bhagat

Deadliest Catch: “Fire at Sea: Part 2”
Josh Earl, ACE & Alexander Rubinow, ACE

There are several ways to predict the films that will be nominated for Best Picture. You can check out the many websites that post what the “experts” are predicting .  These people follow the race all year long. They talk to publicists and Academy members to get a feel for what films have the “buzz”.  One of those sites is Gold Derby. Here are what the 24 “experts” at Gold Derby are currently predicting for a Best Picture nomination including the odds. 


Keep in mind that there can be between 5 and 10 nominees based on the number of votes a film gets. 

Another way to predict the Oscars is to look at stats and at the number of nominations or wins that a film has so far. Awards Daily built a chart comparing the nominations for the precursor awards and the Oscar nominations from previous years. 



You can see that since 2012 getting a Critics Choice nomination often leads to a BP nomination.

Here is how it looks so far this year.


Based on the experts predictions and stats from previous years, your Best Picture nominees list could look something like this:

La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Fences
Arrival 
Hell or High Water 
Hacksaw Ridge
Silence
Hidden Figures

Alternatives:
Jackie
Sully
Lion
Captain Fantastic 

A lot will happen over the next few weeks before nominations and there are bound to be a few surprises. 

new-york-film-critics-circle

The New York Film Critics Circle have chosen their best of 2016.

Best Film
La La Land

Best Director
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert for Elle and The Things to Come

Best Actor
Casey Affleck Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali- Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams for both Manchester by the Sea and Certain Women

Best Cinematography
James Laxton – Moonlight

Best Screenplay
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By The Sea

Best Animated Film
Zootopia

Best Documentary
O.J.: Made in America

Best Foreign Language Film
Toni Erdmann

Best First Film (Tie)
The Edge of Seventeen
Krisha

satellite_awards

The Satellite Awards announced their nominations today.  They are part of the International Press Academy which is an entertainment media association with voting members worldwide who represent domestic and foreign markets via print, television, radio, blogs, and other content platforms for virtually every notable outlet.

Each year the IPA honors artistic excellence in the areas of Motion Pictures, Television, Radio, and New Media via the Satellite Awards.

During the ceremony, the IPA presents Satellite Awards to the best of the entertainment industry in comprehensive categories for Film, Television, DVD and New Media, often choosing the winners that will be seen in other awards show in January and February. In addition, every year we present three special achievement awards.

The winners will announced at a ceremony on February 19, 2017.

Special Achievement Award Recipients
Mary Pickford Award Edward James Olmos
Tesla Award John Toll
Auteur Award Tom Ford
Humanitarian Award Patrick Stewart
Best First Feature: Russudan Glurjidze
“House of Others”
Best Ensemble: Motion Picture Hidden Figures
Best Ensemble: Television Outlander

Actress in a Motion Picture
Annette Bening – 20th Century Woman
Emma Stone – La La Land
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Ruth Negga – Loving
Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals

Actor in a Motion Picture
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Joseph Gordon-Levitt Snowden
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Tom Hanks – Sully
Denzel Washington – Fences

Actress in a Supporting Role
Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Naomi Harris – Moonlight
Viola Davis – Fences

Actor in a Supporting Role
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Dev Patel – Lion
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Eddie Murphy – Mr. Church
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins

Motion Picture
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Lion
Jackie
Hacksaw Ridge
Loving
Hell or High Water
Nocturnal Animals
Captain Fantastic
Hidden Figures
Fences

Motion Picture, International Film
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki – Finland
Toni Erdmann – Germany
Julieta – Spain
A Man Called Ove – Sweden
The Salesman – Iran
The Ardennes – Belgium
Ma’ Rosa – Philippines
The Handmaiden – South Korea
Elle – France
Paradise – Russia

Motion Picture, Animated or Mixed Media Title of Film
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Finding Dory
My Life As a Zucchini
The Jungle Book
The Red Turtle Sony
Miss Hokusai
Trolls
Your Name

Motion Picture, Documentary
Gleason
Life Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
The Ivory Game
The Eagle Huntress
Tower
Fire at Sea
Zero Days
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week

Director
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Tom Ford Nocturnal – Animals
Pablo Larrain – Jackie
Denzel Washington – Fences

Screenplay, Original
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water C
Matt Ross – Captain Fantastic
Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthymis Filippou – The Lobster

Screenplay, Adapted
Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan – Hacksaw Ridge
Luke Davis – Lion
Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone – Snowden
The Jungle Book – Justin Marks
Allison Schroeder – Hidden Figures
Todd Komarnicki – Sully

Original Score
Rupert Gregson Williams – The Hacksaw Ridge
Justin Hurwitz – La La Land
Lesley Barber – Manchester by the Sea
John Williams – The BFG
John Debney – The Jungle Book
Hans Zimmer – Hidden Figures

Original Song
“Audition” La La Land
“City of Stars” La La Land
“Dancing with Your Shadow” Po Commonwealth
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” Trolls
“I’m Still Here” Miss Sharon Jones
“Running” Hidden Figures

Cinematography
John Toll – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Linus Sandgren – La La Land
James Laxton – Moonlight
Simon Duggan – Hacksaw Ridge
Jani-Petteri Passi – The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
Bill Pope – The Jungle Book

Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Doctor Strange
The BFG
Sully
Dead Pool

Film Editing
Tom Cross – La La Land
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders – Moonlight
Tim Squyres – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Alexandre de Francheschi – Lion
John Gilbert – Hacksaw Ridge
Steven Rosenblum – The Birth of a Nation

Sound (Editing and Mixing)
La La Land
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Allied
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Art Direction and Production Design
David Wasco – La La Land
Barry Robinson – Hacksaw Ridge
Jean Rabasse – Jackie
Christophe Glass – The Jungle Book
Gary Freeman – Allied
Dan Hennah  -Alice Through the Looking Glass

Costume Design
Colleen Atwood – Alice Through the Looking Glass
Eimer Ní Mhaoldomhnaigh – Love & Friendship
Courtney Hoffman – Captain Fantastic
Madeline Fontaine – Jackie
Mary Zophres – La La Land
Alexandra Byrne – Doctor Strange